Preseason Rankings
Portland St.
Big Sky
2019-20
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#270
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.5#103
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-5.2#316
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 14.1% 6.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 14.6 15.4
.500 or above 32.6% 66.5% 31.2%
.500 or above in Conference 51.1% 75.9% 50.1%
Conference Champion 6.7% 16.9% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 7.8% 1.6% 8.1%
First Four2.2% 2.9% 2.2%
First Round5.2% 12.5% 4.9%
Second Round0.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.4% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana (Away) - 3.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 10
Quad 411 - 814 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 47   @ Indiana L 64-83 4%    
  Nov 16, 2019 183   @ Hawaii L 69-76 25%    
  Nov 20, 2019 285   Portland W 76-72 63%    
  Nov 23, 2019 330   @ San Jose St. W 78-76 57%    
  Nov 26, 2019 269   Grambling St. L 76-77 49%    
  Nov 27, 2019 160   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-77 21%    
  Dec 01, 2019 74   @ Oregon St. L 66-82 8%    
  Dec 06, 2019 208   Cal St. Northridge L 81-82 49%    
  Dec 17, 2019 117   @ Pepperdine L 74-87 14%    
  Dec 19, 2019 149   @ Loyola Marymount L 64-74 19%    
  Dec 28, 2019 214   Northern Colorado L 72-73 49%    
  Dec 30, 2019 226   Southern Utah W 79-78 51%    
  Jan 02, 2020 338   @ Idaho W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 04, 2020 192   @ Eastern Washington L 72-79 27%    
  Jan 11, 2020 279   @ Montana St. L 80-82 41%    
  Jan 13, 2020 198   @ Montana L 71-78 28%    
  Jan 18, 2020 335   Idaho St. W 80-72 76%    
  Jan 20, 2020 191   Weber St. L 80-81 46%    
  Jan 23, 2020 280   @ Sacramento St. L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 25, 2020 278   @ Northern Arizona L 76-79 42%    
  Jan 30, 2020 198   Montana L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 226   @ Southern Utah L 75-81 32%    
  Feb 10, 2020 214   @ Northern Colorado L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 15, 2020 192   Eastern Washington L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 17, 2020 338   Idaho W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 20, 2020 279   Montana St. W 83-79 61%    
  Feb 27, 2020 335   @ Idaho St. W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 29, 2020 191   @ Weber St. L 77-84 27%    
  Mar 05, 2020 278   Northern Arizona W 79-76 61%    
  Mar 07, 2020 280   Sacramento St. W 76-72 62%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 6.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.4 3.1 2.0 0.5 0.1 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 4.2 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.7 4.6 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.0 1.5 0.2 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 3.6 1.4 0.1 11.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.6 2.8 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 8.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.8 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 7.3 8.7 9.5 10.2 10.5 9.9 8.6 6.9 5.6 4.1 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.5% 0.8    0.7 0.1
17-3 89.7% 1.5    1.2 0.2 0.0
16-4 65.1% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.1
15-5 35.6% 1.5    0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 13.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.7% 6.7 4.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 25.8% 24.2% 1.7% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2%
19-1 0.3% 48.1% 48.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.8% 37.2% 37.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 1.6% 35.8% 35.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.0
16-4 2.7% 30.8% 30.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 1.8
15-5 4.1% 20.1% 20.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 3.3
14-6 5.6% 16.4% 16.4% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 4.6
13-7 6.9% 12.4% 12.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 6.0
12-8 8.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.9 0.1 0.6 8.0
11-9 9.9% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 9.4
10-10 10.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.2
9-11 10.2% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.0
8-12 9.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 9.5
7-13 8.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.6
6-14 7.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 7.2
5-15 5.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.5
4-16 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-17 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
2-18 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.5 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%